How Tomorrow’s Beauty Consumer Will Shop

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As economies and political landscapes shift, beauty consumer segments are evolving, from rising middle classes in markets like India to affluent expats in the UAE. Meanwhile, migration and urbanisation are mixing cultural beauty norms globally, while growing wealth polarisation is fragmenting traditional spending patterns.

Nowhere is this more true than in the US market, where beauty and spending habits are diverging and exacerbated by increasing wealth gaps.

The US beauty market is becoming increasingly fragmented

Wealth disparities are squeezing the mid-price tier and services

• Apart from fragrance, more US consumers say they are spending less on beauty across categories in 2025 than in 2023. This is most evident in haircare, where more consumers say they spent only up to $35 on beauty in the last six months (48 percent in 2025 vs 29 percent in 2023).
• Whilst many US consumers are cutting back on spending, high-net worth shoppers largely continue to splurge, fuelling growth at the top end of the market. With growing wealth disparity, mid-tier price points will likely see continued pressure as consumers feel the need to tighten their purse strings.
• The use of beauty and spa services in the US has grown — over a third of consumers use them in 2025 compared to 22 percent in 2023 — but some users have started trading down or extending time between appointments.

Wellness will continue to grow, especially in higher price tiers

• 44 percent of consumers define beauty as taking care of the mind and body and over 50 percent of consumers consider skincare products to be a key contributor to their wellness routines, akin to physical exercise.
• The use of beauty supplements is expected to grow. 27 percent of US consumers regularly take them, and 43 percent are interested in using them. There is white space for more approachable products and innovation, such as new customisable formats or creatine supplements marketed to women.

A heterogenous consumer base requires multifaceted strategies

• Brands must navigate a constantly changing and vast landscape of consumer needs — from differences in skin tone and hair type to cultural preferences. Localising product offerings and go-to-market strategies is a way to stay ahead. For example, adding Spanish to packaging in the US may resonate with the nearly 15 percent of households that speak Spanish.

In China, the beauty market is slowly rebounding while local brands and AI increase competitive intensity

The Chinese beauty market shows signs of recovery as consumers adapt

• Economic uncertainty lingers, but Chinese beauty shoppers are cautiously optimistic. 76 percent of consumers perceive skincare and colour cosmetics to be affordable, and 60 percent and 50 percent have increased their spending in these categories in the last 12 months, respectively.
• Beauty engagement remains strong — around 50 percent of consumers try at least one new brand every three months, compared to around 30 percent in Europe. There is also high trust in the efficacy of skincare products.

Young Chinese consumers perceive domestic beauty as market-leading

• Domestic brands account for around half of consumers’ beauty bags. Gen-Z favours local labels for their perceived value and effectiveness more than older generations. As this cohort’s spending power rises, their preferences will increasingly shape the broader market. While foreign brands continue to lead in the premium tier, limited middle-class growth means brands must find new ways to appeal to value-conscious consumers in the long term — and compete with local players that emphasise affordability.
• In the mid term, foreign brands will likely retain their appeal among wealthier consumers, with high-end beauty expected to return to moderate growth. One in five consumers say that they recently chose to try a new brand because it is a premium or luxury brand.

Consumers are more open to AI in beauty than other markets

• 83 percent of consumers believe that AI can offer better beauty recommendations than people, giving brands a clear opportunity to build consumer-facing AI tools, including agentic AI (which operates without human oversight).
• Rising beauty device use and high trust in AI create favourable conditions for connected tools that sync with apps to deliver personalised experiences.

In Europe, consumers are prioritising affordability, whilst multiculturalism is shifting preferences

European consumers are more focused on price than before

• Across Europe, inflation has outpaced wage growth over the past five years (at a 4 percent vs 3 percent compound annual growth rate), peaking at 8 percent in 2022. Today, one in four consumers say beauty is unaffordable — rising to one in two for fragrance.
• With price sensitivity expected to persist, cultural norms around what beauty should cost also shape purchasing habits. Mass channels such as drugstores (e.g. DM) and grocery (e.g. Carrefour) stand to gain, while premium speciality and department stores may face headwinds.
• To sustain growth, premium brands in particular should limit exposure to unauthorised third-party channels and reframe their value proposition, including through product education, gifting and special occasions.

As the consumer base expands, beauty preferences will evolve

• The share of immigrants in Europe increased from 10 percent in 2010 to a projected 13 percent in 2024, with variation by country.
• More consumers with varying skin tones, hair types and perspectives on beauty norms mean brands will likely see demand for vaster product assortments.

Large, established players may benefit from the slower-moving market

• Europeans adopt new trends more slowly than others — only 30 percent try a new brand every three months compared to 40 percent globally. Fewer than one in four shoppers aged over 50 try a new product every three months, and half do so less than once a year. There is an opportunity to strengthen loyalty with consumers via hero franchises and higher-replenishment products, such as in skincare.

As consumer wealth in the Middle East rises, premium beauty is thriving

Continued growth in wealthy households will power brands in the region

• The McKinsey Global Institute estimates that the number of households with annual income over $250k will triple in the UAE and double in KSA between 2025 and 2050. Expats are a key growth driver (making up close to 90 percent in the UAE today and expected to make up approximately 45 percent in KSA by 2035, according to GMI).
• High-end beauty is set to grow in the region. More consumers in the UAE and KSA say premium prices are justified than other regions. Around 90 percent consider beauty products affordable, presenting a strong opportunity for prestige and luxury brands to expand and build loyalty.

Appetite for beauty is high across products and services

• UAE and KSA consumers are open to new products, with nearly two-thirds trying at least one new brand every quarter. In KSA, 25 percent say high-end positioning motivates them to try something new.
• Spa treatments and other beauty services are widely used, with three-quarters of consumers engaging in them. Half of non-users are interested in trying them. Higher-end brands have an opportunity to collaborate with luxury hotels, spas and clinics to offer branded experiences.

The region may experience a rise of local brands — beyond fragrance

• The region shows lasting loyalty to fragrance houses with strong local roots, such as Amouage, Arabian Oud and Kayali. In the medium term, new local challengers could emerge across other categories as well, making real-time marketing and social listening essential.
• Deep cultural insight will be conducive to success, especially in niche areas such as hair loss treatments and “full glam” makeup.

In Japan and Korea, beauty expectations remain high as choices abound

Societal pressure on appearance remains high

• Gen-Z and Millennials experience the highest societal pressure around beauty, with 45 percent in South Korea and 33 percent in Japan reporting strong external expectations, higher than their peers in other countries.
• Korean consumers are leading adopters of at-home beauty tools like gua sha and LED face masks, with one in three using them and 40 percent of non-users expressing interest in them. This indicates a white space for topical products that complement at-home treatments or support recovery from in-clinic procedures.

Brand competition is intensifying

• Rapid product advancement has made consumers highly discerning amid growing choice, prioritising ingredient transparency, efficacy and overall experience, as well as product texture and dispensing. Brands must clearly communicate what makes their formulas unique, stay ahead of ingredient and technology innovation and, where relevant, feature expert validation in the marketing of products to strengthen credibility.
• In Korea, retailers like dollar store Daiso Korea are gaining traction with budget-conscious consumers by adding smaller or repackaged versions of brands typically sold at higher-end locations like speciality retailer Olive Young. 42 percent of consumers report buying beauty in less expensive channels over the last 12 months.

There are signs of beauty oversaturation

• While K-beauty fuels excitement in new brand discovery globally, signs of domestic fatigue are emerging. Around half of Japanese and Korean consumers prefer sticking to brands they know. This trend may become more pronounced as populations age.

Rising wealth and beauty spend in growth markets like India and Brazil merit local strategies

In growth markets such as India and Brazil, where 58 percent and 51 percent of consumers increased their beauty purchase frequency in the past year, respectively — compared to just 28 percent across other geographies — rising incomes are encouraging consumers to spend more on beauty. As such, consumers are trading up from lower- to mid- and upper-levels of mass beauty. Brands can consider adding products with marginally higher sticker prices, such as in skincare, featuring special ingredients or limited editions.

A growing share of high-net-worth consumers is driving growth in premium beauty, with international brands still perceived as having superior performance. To grow market share, premium brands can reach a broader consumer profile through entry-level products and targeted sampling.

Consumers in both India and Brazil exhibit openness to trying new products and brands, with India seeing a flurry of local challengers, such as D’you, Minimalist, Asaya and 82°E. These challengers often focus on needs and use cases specific to the Indian consumer.

Celebrity power remains unmatched in India’s beauty market

• Indian consumers are twice as likely to be influenced by celebrities; one in five Indian shoppers aim to smell like their favourite celebrity when buying perfumes, compared to an average of one in 14 in other regions.
• Brands aiming to scale in the market can benefit from the right association. On-brand celebrities can act as a powerful driver of trust, aspirational appeal and engagement (30 percent of consumers trust these tastemakers the most).

Digital direct selling can help tap into Brazil’s shopping culture

• Direct selling serves as a core channel in Brazil and wider Latin America, with brands like Avon and Natura leading in the space. As digital adoption accelerates, live commerce has the potential to evolve the direct sales model.
• Live commerce represents a sizeable opportunity; 19 percent of consumers watched a live show in the last year and 61 percent of others expressed interest. For international brands, digital direct selling may be just as attractive as third-party retailers.

How should executives respond?

• Align brand strategy to evolving wealth and migration patterns, recognising structural shifts such as the increase of Spanish-speaking consumers in the US and diasporic communities in the Middle East.
• Adapt go-to-market approaches to reflect local distinctions, using consumer insights to tailor messaging to cultural nuances.
• Understand the target consumer through micro-segmentation to avoid assumptions of homogeneous behaviour, even within a single market.

This article first appeared in The State of Fashion: Beauty Volume 2, an in-depth report on the global beauty industry, co-published by BoF and McKinsey & Company.